{"id":42751,"date":"2024-02-27T09:05:41","date_gmt":"2024-02-27T06:05:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/uomosul.edu.iq\/engineering\/?p=42751"},"modified":"2024-02-28T09:09:22","modified_gmt":"2024-02-28T06:09:22","slug":"42751-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/uomosul.edu.iq\/engineering\/42751-2\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0631\u0633\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0645\u0627\u062c\u0633\u062a\u064a\u0631 \u0641\u064a \u0643\u0644\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0647\u0646\u062f\u0633\u0629 \u062e\u0635\u0627\u0626\u0635 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0641\u0627\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u0627\u062e\u064a \u0648\u062a\u0623\u062b\u064a\u0631\u0647 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0625\u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0646\u0637\u0629"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\u0647\u062f\u0641\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0631\u0633\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u062a\u0642\u062f\u0645 \u0628\u0647\u0627 \u0627\u0644\u0637\u0627\u0644\u0628 (\u062d\u0633\u0646 \u062c\u0645\u0627\u0644 \u0639\u0628\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0644\u0647) \u0627\u0644\u0649 \u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0647 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0627\u0645 \u0644\u0644\u0639\u0648\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u0627\u062e\u064a\u0629 (\u0627\u0644\u0627\u0645\u0637\u0627\u0631 \u0648\u062f\u0631\u062c\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0631\u0627\u0631\u0629) \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0627\u0639\u062a\u0645\u0627\u062f \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u062e\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0631 Mann-kendall test \u0648Sen\u2019s slope.. \u0648\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u062e\u0635\u0627\u0626\u0635 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0641\u0627\u0641 \u0644\u0645\u0646\u0637\u0642\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0628\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062e\u062f\u0627\u0645 \u0645\u0624\u0634\u0631\u0627\u062a (SPI\/ CZI).. \u0648\u0628\u064a\u0627\u0646 \u0645\u062f\u0649 \u0625\u0645\u0643\u0627\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0639\u062a\u0645\u0627\u062f \u0645\u0624\u0634\u0631 CZI \u0644\u0645\u0646\u0637\u0642\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0645\u0646 \u062e\u0644\u0627\u0644 \u0645\u0642\u0627\u0631\u0646\u062a\u0647 \u0645\u0639 \u0645\u0624\u0634\u0631 SPI.. \u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u062a\u0623\u062b\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0641\u0627\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u0627\u062e\u064a \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0646\u0637\u0629 .<\/div>\n
\u062d\u0636\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0646\u0627\u0642\u0634\u0629 \u0639\u062f\u062f \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062f\u0631\u064a\u0633\u064a\u064a\u0646 \u0648\u0637\u0644\u0628\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0644\u064a\u0627 \u0641\u064a \u0627\u0644\u0642\u0633\u0645.<\/div>\n
\u0646\u0627\u0642\u0634\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0631\u0633\u0627\u0644\u0629 \u062a\u0639\u0648\u064a\u0636 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0641\u0642\u0648\u062f\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0645\u0637\u0627\u0631 \u0648\u062f\u0631\u062c\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0631\u0627\u0631\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0638\u0645\u0649 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0635\u063a\u0631\u0649 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0631\u0637\u0648\u0628\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0638\u0645\u0649 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0635\u063a\u0631\u0649 \u0648\u062a\u0645 \u0627\u062c\u0631\u0627\u0621 \u0627\u062e\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0641\u062d\u0635 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0646\u0633 \u0627\u0644\u0623\u0631\u0628\u0639\u0629 (Pettitt, Standard Normal Homogeneity, Buishand and Van Neumann) \u0639\u0646\u062f \u0645\u0633\u062a\u0648\u0649 \u062b\u0642\u0629 5%\u060c \u0644\u062b\u0645\u0627\u0646 \u0645\u062d\u0637\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0631\u0635\u0627\u062f \u062c\u0648\u064a\u0629 \u0645\u0648\u0632\u0639\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0639\u0645\u0648\u0645 \u0645\u062d\u0627\u0641\u0638\u0629 \u0646\u064a\u0646\u0648\u0649 \u0644\u0644\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 1990-2020 \u0648\u0647\u064a (\u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u0635\u0644\u060c \u062a\u0644\u0639\u0641\u0631\u060c \u0633\u0646\u062c\u0627\u0631\u060c \u0631\u0628\u064a\u0639\u0629\u060c \u062a\u0644 \u0639\u0628\u0637\u0629\u060c \u0627\u0644\u0628\u0639\u0627\u062c\u060c \u0627\u0644\u0634\u064a\u062e\u0627\u0646\u060c \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0645\u062f\u0627\u0646\u064a\u0629)\u060c \u0628\u064a\u0646\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0646\u062a\u0627\u0626\u062c \u062a\u062c\u0627\u0646\u0633 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u0645\u0637\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0634\u0647\u0631\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0644\u0645\u062d\u0637\u0627\u062a \u062c\u0645\u064a\u0639\u0647\u0627 \u0628\u0627\u0633\u062a\u062b\u0646\u0627\u0621 \u062b\u0644\u0627\u062b\u0629 \u0623\u0634\u0647\u0631 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\u0639\u0644\u0649 (Mann-Kendall Test) \u0648 (Sen’s slope estimator)\u060c \u0648\u0628\u064a\u0646 \u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0627\u062a\u062c\u0627\u0647 \u0627\u0646 \u0647\u0646\u0627\u0644\u0643 \u0627\u0646\u062e\u0641\u0627\u0636 \u063a\u064a\u0631 \u0645\u0639\u0646\u0648\u064a \u0644\u0644\u0623\u0645\u0637\u0627\u0631 \u064a\u0642\u0627\u0628\u0644\u0647\u0627 \u0632\u064a\u0627\u062f\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0636\u062d\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u062f\u0631\u062c\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0631\u0627\u0631\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0639\u0638\u0645\u0649 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u0635\u063a\u0631\u0649. \u0643\u0630\u0644\u0643 \u062a\u0645 \u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0627\u0633\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0645\u0646\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0637\u0631\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0631\u0635\u062f \u0641\u062a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0641\u0627\u0641 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0624\u062b\u0631\u0629 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0627\u0639\u062a\u0645\u0627\u062f \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0645\u0624\u0634\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0633\u0642\u064a\u0637 \u0627\u0644\u0642\u064a\u0627\u0633\u064a Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) \u0648\u0645\u0624\u0634\u0631 Z \u0627\u0644\u0635\u064a\u0646\u064a Chinese Z index \u0648\u0645\u0644\u0627\u062d\u0638\u0629 \u0645\u062f\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0637\u0627\u0628\u0642 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0646\u062a\u0627\u0626\u062c \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0624\u0634\u0631\u064a\u0646\u060c \u0627\u0630 \u0627\u0638\u0647\u0631\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0646\u062a\u0627\u0626\u062c \u0627\u0646 \u0627\u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0646\u0633\u0628\u0629 \u062a\u0643\u0631\u0627\u0631 \u0644\u0644\u062c\u0641\u0627\u0641 \u0647\u064a 51.2% \u0641\u064a \u0645\u062d\u0637\u0629 \u062a\u0644 \u0639\u0628\u0637\u0629 \u0648\u0644\u0645\u0624\u0634\u0631\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0641\u0627\u0641 SPI \u0648CZI\u060c \u0648\u0627\u0642\u0644\u0647\u0627 (45.1, 50.\"\ud83d\ude0e\"<\/span> \u0644\u0645\u062d\u0637\u0627\u062a (\u0634\u064a\u062e\u0627\u0646\/ \u0633\u0646\u062c\u0627\u0631\u060c \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0648\u0635\u0644) \u0644\u0645\u0624\u0634\u0631\u064a (SPI, CZI) \u0648\u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0648\u0627\u0644\u064a\u060c \u0648\u062a\u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0644\u0646\u0627 \u0627\u0646 \u0647\u0646\u0627\u0644\u0643 \u062a\u0637\u0627\u0628\u0642 \u0628\u064a\u0646 \u0645\u0624\u0634\u0631\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0641\u0627\u0641 \u0641\u064a \u062a\u062d\u062f\u064a\u062f \u0627\u0644\u0641\u062a\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0627\u0644\u0631\u0637\u0628\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062c\u0627\u0641\u0629 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u062a\u0631\u0627\u0648\u062d\u062a \u0642\u064a\u0645\u0629 R2 \u0645\u0646 0.84 \u0627\u0644\u0649 0.94. \u0648\u0644\u0623\u0647\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u0645\u0646\u0637\u0642\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629 \u0632\u0631\u0627\u0639\u064a\u0627 \u0648\u0627\u0644\u062a\u064a \u062a\u0639\u062a\u0645\u062f \u0627\u063a\u0644\u0628 \u0623\u0631\u0627\u0636\u064a\u0647\u0627 \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0631\u0627\u0639\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u064a\u0645\u064a\u0629 \u0648\u062a\u0634\u0643\u0644 \u0645\u0627 \u0646\u0633\u0628\u062a\u0647 %93 \u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0633\u0627\u062d\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0627\u062e\u0644\u0629 \u0636\u0645\u0646 \u0627\u0644\u062e\u0637\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0632\u0631\u0627\u0639\u064a\u0629\u060c \u062a\u0645 \u062d\u0633\u0627\u0628 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u0646\u0633\u0628\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0645\u062d\u0635\u0648\u0644 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0646\u0637\u0629 \u0628\u0627\u0633\u062a\u0639\u0645\u0627\u0644 \u0628\u0631\u0646\u0627\u0645\u062c Cropwat 8.0\u060c \u062b\u0645 \u0627\u062c\u0631\u064a \u062a\u062d\u0644\u064a\u0644 \u0644\u0625\u064a\u062c\u0627\u062f \u0645\u0639\u0627\u062f\u0644\u0629 \u062e\u0627\u0635\u0629 \u0644\u062a\u0642\u062f\u064a\u0631 \u0627\u0644\u0625\u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c\u064a\u0629 \u0644\u0623\u0631\u0628\u0639 \u0645\u0642\u0627\u0637\u0639\u0627\u062a (\u0645\u0648\u0635\u0644\u060c \u0631\u0628\u064a\u0639\u0629\u060c \u0633\u0646\u062c\u0627\u0631\u060c \u062a\u0644\u0639\u0641\u0631) \u0627\u0639\u062a\u0645\u0627\u062f\u0627\u064b \u0639\u0644\u0649 \u0645\u0624\u0634\u0631\u064a \u0627\u0644\u062c\u0641\u0627\u0641 (SPI, CZI) \u0644\u0623\u0631\u0628\u0639 \u0645\u0646\u0627\u0637\u0642 \u0632\u0631\u0627\u0639\u064a\u0629 \u0641\u064a \u0645\u0646\u0637\u0642\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0633\u0629\u060c \u0648\u062a\u0645 \u0627\u0644\u062a\u0648\u0635\u0644 \u0625\u0644\u0649 \u0623\u0646 \u0625\u0646\u062a\u0627\u062c\u064a\u0629 \u0627\u0644\u062d\u0646\u0637\u0629 \u062a\u062a\u0623\u062b\u0631 \u0628\u0634\u0643\u0644 \u0643\u0628\u064a\u0631 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u062a\u0648\u0632\u064a\u0639 \u0627\u0644\u0645\u0637\u0631\u064a 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\n
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<\/div>\n
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