College of Computer Science and Mathematics

Discussion of the master’s thesis in the College of Computer Science and Mathematics -Department of Statistics and Informatics Department entitled:

” Employing A fuzzy  logic For Diagnosing (ARFIMA)Models With application”

In continuation of the scientific research movement and with the follow-up and presence of the Dean of the College of Computer Science and Mathematics

Respected Professor Dr. Duha Bashir Abdullah

Master’s thesis by :Rehab Talal Ahmed

supervised by  Dr. Omar Salim Ibrahim

This thesis includes :Applying the ARFIMA time series model using several methods to estimate long memory and determine the fractional difference parameter, including one-stage methods and two-stage methods. With increasing interest in modern methods of time series analysis, fuzzy logic was applied to the long-memory time series Fuzzy-ARFIMA and using algorithms (Chen, Singh, Heuristic) in addition to applying the ARFIMA-Hybrid model.

The study addressed : Analyzing and forecasting the prices of some agricultural crops in the markets of Nineveh Governorate for the period from January 2018 to December 2023 using the ARFIMA model, which is one of the most important modern methods for forecasting time series, in addition to using fuzzy logic technology, which is considered one of the successful alternatives that give accurate and reliable forecasting results.

The study aims to: Obtaining future predictions that represent reality and reducing error to a minimum by using modern methods of time series analysis that contribute greatly to the planning and decision-making process.

The discussion committee consists of

1. M.Dr. Muthanna Subhi Suleiman – Chairman
2. M.Dr. Hiyam Abdel Majeed Hayawi – Member
3. M. Dr. Ban Ghanem Al-Ani – Member
4. Dr. Omar Salim Ibrahim – member and supervisor